In June 2025, the NHX CTA Index was up as losses in stocks and bonds were outweighed by profits in commodities, but briefly erupting geopolitical tensions created a difficult trading environment. Performance across managers and sub-strategies was broadly positive, with results varying depending on each manager’s relative commodity exposure.
Last month, Time-Series Momentum (TSMOM), as measured by RPM’s Market Divergence Indicator (MDI), increased sluggishly from ultra-low levels as slowly increasing trendiness in commodities was largely offset by reversing trends in financials. In equities, at first, U.S. stocks rallied after a strong U.S. jobs report had eased investors’ fears about an upcoming recession. Then, global markets dropped after Israel launched a wide-ranging surprise attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, only to rebound a week later on news of a U.S.-brokered ceasefire. The move was mirrored in fixed income, where bond yields first jumped on the better-than-expected jobs report, then dropped amid increased safe-haven demand, and then rose again when the Federal Reserve left interest rate unchanged amid stubbornly high inflation and economic uncertainty.
In FX, the U.S. dollar sank to its lowest level in three years as rising worries over trade and geopolitics piled greater pressure on the currency before getting a boost from Israel’s attack on Iran. In commodities, crude oil prices rose to multi-week highs amid optimism about U.S.-China trade talks, receiving another lift from the Israel-Iran conflict before tumbling to pre-attack levels as Israel and Iran agreed a truce. Precious metals also profited from the increased safe-haven demand before falling back again. Elsewhere, meat prices were trending upwards, with beef prices, in particular, reaching record highs on slower production and increased demand.
Sub-Strategies and Constituents in the NHX CTA Index
Most traditional trend-following managers in the Nordic Hedge Index posted gains in June, with performance varying based on each program’s relative exposure to commodities – higher exposure generally resulting in stronger returns. The pure commodity-focused Calculo Evolution Fund gained 2.0 percent, while the Lynx Program and Mandatum Managed Futures Fund were up 2.0 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively, driven by profits in soft commodities and stock indices. Estlander & Partners’ Alpha Trend Program edged up 0.6 percent, supported by solid contributions from FX positions, whereas SEB Asset Selection slipped 0.4 percent.
Performance among non-traditional trend-following managers was broadly positive in June. Both Lynx Constellation and Epoque posted gains of 0.6 percent. Among macro-oriented programs, Lynx Systematic Macro stood out with a strong 4.0 percent return, while the Volt Diversified Alpha Fund – which blends macro and trend-following strategies – gained 1.2 percent. Estlander & Partners Freedom also advanced 1.3 percent. Meanwhile, the multi-manager RPM Evolving CTA Fund finished the month flat, as losses in equities and fixed income among underlying managers were offset by gains in commodities.
Outlook
Markets remain nervous and totally unpredictable for the time being as economic uncertainty is now being mixed with geopolitical issues. The Fed could not bring any clarity at its last meeting either. As U.S. statistics have worsened again investors await the expiration of the 90-day tariff pause which is due on July 9th.
