The NHX CTA Index posted another monthly gain in July 2025, as steady profits in soft commodities and equity indices managed to offset balance blitzkrieg-like losses in industrial metals at month-end. The latter came after copper prices plunged in response to another surprise policy move by President Donald Trump. Performance across managers and sub-strategies varied depending largely on commodity exposure.
Last month, Time-Series Momentum (TSMOM) as measured by RPM’s Market Divergence Indicator (MDI) first slowly increased from ultra-low levels amid continuing trends in stocks and softs before being repelled by reversals across fixed income, foreign exchange, and, especially, metals. In equities, US stocks continued their upward march, breaking new records amid stronger-than-expected statistics and solid earnings as well as hopes for a US-EU tariff deal (which also materialized). However, in fixed income, markets reversed course from the previous month, with yields rising on economic improvements and expectations that the Fed would not lower interest rates at its meeting on July 30th – an expectation that was fulfilled. Meanwhile, the US dollar also switched direction, appreciating against its peers as the resilience of the US economy prompted some investors to back away from bearish bets on the currency.
Commodities markets told a mixed story. At first, crude oil prices remained range-bound with tariff concerns tempered by the US reaching several trade deals, including the EU, before jumping on US threats of tariff sanctions on Russia. Elsewhere, meat prices kept moving upwards, with beef prices reaching yet another record high, driven by shrinking US herds (the lowest since 1951), rising feed costs, and increased demand. However, the big shocker happened in industrial metals, where copper prices crashed after President Trump unveiled 50% tariffs on copper products, but not on the raw material itself. In crypto currencies, both Bitcoin and Ethereum surged in value as trading volumes skyrocketed.
Sub-Strategies and Constituents in the NHX CTA Index
The performance of more traditional trend-following managers in the Nordic Hedge Index was mixed in July, largely depending on each program’s commodity exposure. Lynx Asset Management’s flagship Lynx Program gained 0.8 percent, while Mandatum Managed Futures Fund added 0.5 percent – both supported by profits in softs and stocks. In contrast, Estlander & Partners Alpha Trend and SEB Asset Selection were down 4.2 percent and 0.8 percent respectively. The pure commodity-focused Calculo Evolution Fund slipped 0.4 percent.
Non-traditional trend-following managers showed similarly mixed results, with particularly strong performance for Lynx Asset Management’s vehicles. Lynx Systematic Macro delivered a standout return of 6.7 percent, while Lynx Constellation gained a solid 3.7 percent. Meanwhile, the Volt Diversified Alpha Fund – which combines macro and trend-following strategies – slipped 0.1 percent, weighed down by short positions in the US dollar and a long position in copper. Epoque ended the month in negative territory.
Estlander & Partners Freedom closed July with a 1.1 percent loss. The multi-manager RPM Evolving CTA Fund fell 2.4 percent, as losses from underlying managers with copper exposure outweighed gains in soft commodities. Meanwhile, the crypto-focused Anna Fund advanced 7.6 percent – benefiting from Bitcoin’s highest-ever monthly close – bringing its year-to-date performance back into positive territory.
Outlook
Markets seem to have engaged in a new narrative with a significantly diminished tariff threat and a (once again) robust US economy. However, trends are only slowly getting off the ground as President Trump continues to throw a spanner in the works.
