The Thanksgiving turkey-black swan dilemma

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Stockholm (HedgeNordic) – A famous example Nasim Taleb uses in his 2007 book “The Black Swan” to describe what a black swan occurrence is and how unforeseen it is to those getting stricken by it fits is rather well with todays US holiday is the Thanksgiving turkey.

“Consider a turkey that is fed every day,”  Taleb writes. “Every single feeding will firm up the bird’s belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race ‘looking out for its best interests,’ as a politician would say. “On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.”

Here’s Taleb’s famous chart describing the dilemma:

taleb-thanksgiving-turkey

Picture: (c) muratart—shutterstock.com

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About Author

Kamran has been working in the financial industry since 1994 and has specialized on client relations and marketing. Having worked with retail clients in asset management and brokerage the first ten years of his career for major European banks, he joined a CTA / Managed Futures fund with 1,5 Billion USD under management where he was responsible for sales, client relations and operations in the BeNeLux and Nordic countries. Kamran joined a multi-family office managing their own fund of hedgefunds with 400 million USD AuM in 2009. Kamran has worked and lived in Vienna, Frankfurt, Amsterdam and Stockholm. Born in 1974, Kamran today again lives in Vienna, Austria.

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