- Advertisement -
- Advertisement -

The Thanksgiving turkey-black swan dilemma

- Advertisement -

Stockholm (HedgeNordic) – A famous example Nasim Taleb uses in his 2007 book “The Black Swan” to describe what a black swan occurrence is and how unforeseen it is to those getting stricken by it fits is rather well with todays US holiday is the Thanksgiving turkey.

“Consider a turkey that is fed every day,”  Taleb writes. “Every single feeding will firm up the bird’s belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race ‘looking out for its best interests,’ as a politician would say. “On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.”

Here’s Taleb’s famous chart describing the dilemma:

taleb-thanksgiving-turkey

Picture: (c) muratart—shutterstock.com

close

Subscribe to HedgeBrev, HedgeNordic’s weekly newsletter, and never miss the latest news!

Our newsletter is sent once a week, every Friday.

Kamran Ghalitschi
Kamran Ghalitschi
Kamran has been working in the financial industry since 1994 and has specialized on client relations and marketing. Having worked with retail clients in asset management and brokerage the first ten years of his career for major European banks, he joined a CTA / Managed Futures fund with 1,5 Billion USD under management where he was responsible for sales, client relations and operations in the BeNeLux and Nordic countries. Kamran joined a multi-family office managing their own fund of hedgefunds with 400 million USD AuM in 2009. Kamran has worked and lived in Vienna, Frankfurt, Amsterdam and Stockholm. Born in 1974, Kamran today again lives in Vienna, Austria.

Latest

Most Popular This Week

Request for Proposal

- Advertisement -

Latest Articles

Expected 75 Point Hike in Riksbank Rate

Stockholm (HedgeNordic) – Sweden’s Riksbank raised the key interest rate by an expected 75 basis points to 2.5 percent, the highest level since 2008....

The Age of Macro is Back

Stockholm (HedgeNordic) – In recent years, fixed-income macro managers such as Carlsson Norén have struggled to deliver attractive absolute returns in a low-volatility environment...

Man AHL Launches its First Systematic Article 9 Fund

Stockholm (HedgeNordic) – Man Group’s quantitative investment arm and engine, Man AHL, has launched the asset manager’s first systematic Article 9 fund. Relying on...

Corporate Bonds are Very Attractive Finds Atlant Fonder

Stockholm (HedgeNordic) – This year’s broad sell-off in the bond market due to aggressive monetary tightening in the fight against inflation may have investors...

Afalon’s Holistic Approach Amid Fund Closure

Stockholm (HedgeNordic) –  Finnish asset manager Afalon Investment Management has called time on its hedge fund that sought to identify investments aligned with sustainability...

HedgeNordic’s CTA Roundtable Back in the Flesh

Stockholm (HedgeNordic) – On November 17, 2022, HedgeNordic hosted its traditional, annual CTA roundtable in Stockholm. After two years in a virtual format, it...