The hedge fund industry is highly heterogeneous, and Avanto Right Tail is one example of a strategy that adds to this diversity. Managed by Lars Mikelsen out of Norway, the fund seeks to capture the “right tail” of return distributions, the rare but exceptionally positive outcomes that can significantly drive long-term returns. Now celebrating its three-year anniversary, Avanto Right Tail has more than doubled investors’ capital since launch. While annualized returns of 27 percent would satisfy most investors, Mikelsen acknowledges that “the journey has been both profitable and instructive. The path has not been straight.”
Officially launched in May 2023, Avanto Right Tail focuses on opportunities where the potential upside is disproportionately larger than the downside risk. In practice, this means identifying thematic convictions and structural trends before they become mainstream market narratives. Among the themes that shaped the portfolio over its first three years were institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies, the revival of nuclear power, and increasing scarcity in critical minerals.
Several of these concentrated thematic bets proved highly successful. “What we have confirmed over three years is that markets consistently underprice structural change in its early phase. Crypto in 2023, uranium before the AI build-out, rare earths before the trade war,” says Rune Mæle, managing partner at Avanto Capital. “The next opportunities are already in the portfolio, they just haven’t been priced ‘right’ yet.” Over its first three years, Avanto Right Tail generated cumulative returns of more than 100 percent.
“What we have confirmed over three years is that markets consistently underprice structural change in its early phase. Crypto in 2023, uranium before the AI build-out, rare earths before the trade war.”
Rune Mæle, managing partner at Avanto Capital.
Despite the strong results, Mikelsen emphasizes that volatility and setbacks are an inherent part of the strategy. “The path has not been straight. We have had months with both small and large setbacks,” he says. “We have owned positions that multiplied many times over, and we have owned positions that became almost worthless.” But according to Mikelsen, this asymmetry is precisely the foundation of the strategy. “That is the model: losses are limited, while the gains – when they come – are much larger.”
“We have owned positions that multiplied many times over, and we have owned positions that became almost worthless. That is the model: losses are limited, while the gains – when they come – are much larger.”
Lars Mikelsen
The fund’s most successful investments have shared a common characteristic. “We were early with a conviction that the market had not yet priced in,” explains Mikelsen. “Bitcoin and Solana before institutional adoption. Uranium and nuclear power before AI-driven electricity demand became mainstream. Rare earths before supply-chain disruptions became front-page news.” Not every theme developed as expected, however. Cannabis, for example, has been the fund’s most persistent challenge. Avanto was right on the regulatory direction, but the sector’s pricing remained disconnected from fundamentals, and the fund has added to its position rather than capitulating. Nevertheless, the strategy’s overall approach has delivered results. “When we manage to identify the right themes early enough and hold positions long enough, the winners more than compensate for the losses,” says Mikelsen.
The strategy is not limited to thematic bets. In late 2025, with sell-side analysts unanimously bearish on container shipping line ZIM Integrated, Avanto built an aggressive position through shares and call options on the view that the company’s cash alone covered the share price and that a strategic review made some form of transaction likely. In February 2026, Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd announced an agreement to acquire the company at USD 35 per share.
“The world is undergoing structural transformation…It is precisely during such periods that asymmetric opportunities emerge, and when the Right Tail approach makes the most sense.”
Lars Mikelsen
Looking ahead, Mikelsen and his team believe the coming years could offer a similarly fertile backdrop for asymmetric opportunities, pointing to stablecoins as rails for AI-agent transactions, the CPU and memory side of the AI build-out, and a newly assembled basket of “litigation stocks” as current areas of focus. “The world is undergoing structural transformation: energy, technology, commodities, and finance are all experiencing fundamental shifts,” says Mikelsen. “It is precisely during such periods that asymmetric opportunities emerge, and when the Right Tail approach makes the most sense.” He concludes: “We look forward to the next three years.”
