In January, the NHX CTA Index generated strong performance, mainly due to profits in precious metals, despite a major market reversal at month-end. Performance was broadly positive across managers and sub-strategies.
Last month, TSMOM, as measured by RPM’s Market Divergence Index (MDI), surged to its highest level in over two years, mainly driven by extraordinary trends in precious metals amid rising US-Europe tensions over Greenland. In equities, US stocks zigzagged, slowly grinding higher amid President Donald Trump’s ever-changing policy stance in the conflict. In fixed income and FX, the ‘sell America’ trade returned as bonds and the US dollar slumped after Trump’s new tariff threats regarding the ownership of the world’s largest island.
In commodities, crude oil prices surged as expectations of potential US military action against Iran raised concerns about supply disruptions. Once again, however, the metals sector stole the limelight, as precious metals rushed from record to record, with gold surging above the US$ 5,000 threshold for the first time ever.
At the beginning of the year, geopolitical tensions fueled safe-haven demand following US military operations in Venezuela. This was compounded by the Department of Justice’s criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, which triggered fears of the Federal Reserve’s independence going forward. President Trump’s renewed push to take over Greenland further increased geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand.
Worries about another US government shutdown after Senate Democrats, angered by the shootings in Minneapolis, signaled they would not vote for a federal funding package, added fresh fuel to metals’ red-hot rally. However, at month-end, gold and silver plunged in their sharpest drop since 1980, following reports of President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh, known for hawkish credentials, to chair the Federal Reserve.
Sub-Strategies and Constituents in the NHX CTA Index
Performance among trend-following managers in the Nordic Hedge Index was generally positive during the first month of 2026, with trend-following program Lynx leading the charts. Calculo Altus, Lynx, Estlander & Partners Alpha Trend, Mandatum Managed Futures Fund, SEB Asset Selection were all up on the month, mainly due to profits in precious metals and currencies, respectively.
Beyond traditional trend-followers, the broader CTA sub-index constituents delivered mixed results. Short-term-oriented Epoque was down in January, while machine learning-driven Lynx Constellation finished the month in positive territory. Lynx Systematic Macro was down, whereas Estlander & Partners Freedom and Volt Diversified Alpha were able to generate positive returns primarily due to profits in precious metals. Multi-manager program RPM Evolving CTA Fund was up notably due to the underlying managers’ profits in precious metals.
Macroeconomic uncertainty has begun to ease as the US economy continues to surprise on the upside, while inflation has continued to moderate. However, volatility remains elevated, largely due to uncertainty emanating from the White House.
