Macro hedge fund Atlas Global Macro, co-managed by CIO Lars Tvede and portfolio managers Jakob Due and Jakob Sabroe, had significant exposure to Russian securities as part of a commodity supercycle theme ahead of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This positioning dealt a severe blow to performance in 2022. After two difficult years of rebuilding, that same conviction in a commodity supercycle ultimately underpinned a strong recovery in 2025, with Atlas Global Macro finishing the year as the best-performing Nordic hedge fund, delivering a return of 39.2 percent.

Trading Flexibility, Beyond the Rhetoric and Contrarian Inflation Positioning

“Success in 2025 had a variety of reasons,” says Lars Tvede. Chief among them was the fund’s switch to UBS as prime broker, which significantly enhanced trading flexibility, including access to commodity futures. “We can now trade commodity futures and have done so a lot,” adds Tvede. “Catching the early phase of the commodity bull market has been very profitable for us.” As previously reported by HedgeNordic, precious metals were among the strongest contributors for the fund, with direct exposures to gold, silver, and platinum all performing well. The fund also generated gains from commodity-linked equities, including rare earths, uranium, and gold and silver miners.

“We can now trade commodity futures and have done so a lot. Catching the early phase of the commodity bull market has been very profitable for us.”

Lars Tvede, CIO of Atlas Global Macro.

Another contributor to Atlas Global Macro’s strong performance in 2025 was the team’s refusal to take Donald Trump’s negotiation rhetoric at face value, according to Tvede. “He has a distinct “shock and awe” style to his negotiations — scare the opponent first, then talk,” he explains. “By calibrating for that and listening closely to Howard Lutnick, Scott Bessent, David Sachs, and others, we gained a much clearer view of the actual objective.”

On the back of that assessment, the team increased risk during April and May, a period when many investors were de-risking. “The U.S. is undergoing a radical supply-side revolution, which is exactly what the country needs,” considers Tvede. “That project is progressing remarkably well, and the results will compound over time. The fundamental drivers include massive deregulation, plus tax cuts and negotiated investment deals.”

“While consensus feared a serious inflation spike, we bet against it and bought T-bonds on weakness.”

Lars Tvede, CIO of Atlas Global Macro.

Another contrarian position that helped set Atlas Global Macro apart was its stance on inflation. “While consensus feared a serious inflation spike, we bet against it and bought T-bonds on weakness,” says Tvede. Beyond the U.S., performance was supported by gains in select regional exposures, including Greek banks. “We also benefited from a strong rebound in Asian equities, which remain undervalued despite high growth,” he notes. “And China. At the start of the year, many investors considered Chinese equities un-investable, but we invested.”

The Commodity Supercycle Thesis Revisited

Atlas Global Macro is a theme-driven global macro fund, and a long-term commodity “supercycle” has been a core element of its portfolio since inception. The fund’s strong performance in 2025, Tvede argues, reflects what he views as the early stage of a broader commodity bull market.

“Commodity cycles tend to be long, and this one starts from a particularly extreme base of very severe underinvestment.”

Lars Tvede, CIO of Atlas Global Macro.

Explaining the basis for this conviction, Tvede points to the consequences of more than a decade of severe underinvestment in the mining sector. “We are looking at the consequences of eleven years of severe underinvestment in the mining sector,” he says. The team believes the upcycle in metals and mining could extend for another ten years. “Commodity cycles tend to be long, and this one starts from a particularly extreme base of very severe underinvestment.” Tvede draws parallels with the 2000-2006 metals bull market, in which he was deeply involved, a period when mining equities often appreciated by 400-500 percent. “I believe a similar trajectory could be possible.”

Looking Ahead: Three Dominant Themes for 2026

As a theme-driven macro investor, Tvede highlights three dominant themes as the fund looks further into 2026: artificial intelligence, commodities, and China. “For 2026, we are overall bullish on risk assets. A main driver is AI,” he says. Tvede is convinced that AI will deliver productivity gains at a pace far exceeding that of previous technological revolutions. “We do not believe AI-related companies are in a financial bubble yet, far from it,” he argues. While there may be isolated concerns around OpenAI, he notes that listed hyper-scalers are largely financing their AI investments through free cash flow. Tvede explores these dynamics in more detail in a book scheduled for publication later this year.

“We do not believe AI-related companies are in a financial bubble yet, far from it.”

Lars Tvede, CIO of Atlas Global Macro.

“AI is the engine powering a rare trifecta: higher productivity, stronger growth, and lower inflation,” emphasizes Tvede. He expects U.S. inflation to continue trending lower. “Beyond AI’s role as a broad disinflationary force, we believe the U.S. shelter component will also turn disinflationary,” he adds. “The overall global inflation trend should also move downward.” Taken together, these dynamics point to what Tvede describes as a “Goldilocks” environment. “Of course, not happy times everywhere and all the time,” he cautions, “but the overall flavour will be Goldilocks.”

The second macro theme is commodities, which Tvede sees as reinforcing the constructive outlook for risk assets. “We live in Switzerland, which accounts for roughly 60 percent of global metals trading, and we talk with a lot of traders,” he says. “All we hear is shortages looming, price increases coming.”

Finally, the team at Atlas Global Macro views emerging markets, particularly China, as structurally overlooked and well positioned to outperform. “Regionally, Asia – specifically China, Vietnam, and the rest of the ASEAN bloc – is poised to shine,” says Tvede. “Latin America could also perform well. The region is swinging decisively towards free markets, and it will benefit from the commodities boom.”

“Chinese tech companies are delivering earnings growth rates nearly double that of their American peers, yet they trade at half the valuation.”

Lars Tvede, CIO of Atlas Global Macro.

China is a particularly compelling part of the fund’s 2026 story, according to Tvede. “Chinese tech companies are delivering earnings growth rates nearly double that of their American peers, yet they trade at half the valuation,” he notes. “Furthermore, Chinese consumers are sitting on a cash mountain equivalent to 1.6 times the domestic stock market’s capitalization. Give it a trigger, and the money flows into the market. Last time this happened, the markets almost tripled.”