The NHX CTA Index gained in September 2025, supported by a broad-based trend environment. Most of the profits came from precious metals, as gold surged from record high to record high amid expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence. With few exceptions, performance was positive across managers and sub-strategies.
Last month, Time-Series Momentum (TSMOM), as measured by RPM’s Market Divergence Index (MDI), increased steadily from ultra-low levels, supported by continuing trends in equities and softs, as well as new and powerful trends in precious metals. In equities, global stock markets marched to new record highs as the Fed was expected to cut interest rates (which it did). Moreover, weak U.S. jobs data cemented the case for further rate cuts to come (the old “good news is bad news”). In foreign exchange, the U.S. dollar depreciated significantly against its peers. In fixed income, yields initially dropped in anticipation of the Fed’s first rate cut this year, before changing direction again, rising amid concerns of a U.S. federal government shutdown (which also materialized).
In commodities, gold prices punched through $3,800 per troy ounce, an unprecedented record high amid expectations of more U.S. rate cuts and worries over the central bank’s independence. Elsewhere, oil prices went nowhere with Russian supply risks amid Ukrainian attacks against the Kremlin’s energy infrastructure, President Donald Trump cracking down on India, and declining U.S. inventories offsetting each other. Finally, wheat prices fell on forecasts of continuing rain in prime growing areas, whereas beef saw a slight retreat from earlier record highs. In crypto currencies, Bitcoin bucked seasonality trends gaining more this month than any other September since 2012, a new bull market record.
Sub-Strategies and Constituents in the NHX CTA Index
Most traditional trend-following managers ended the month in positive territory in September. Estlander & Partners Alpha Trend, Lynx, Mandatum Managed Futures, and SEB Asset Selection all benefited from sharp rallies in precious metals and equity indices. Anna Fund also advanced, as gains in Bitcoin outweighed losses in other cryptocurrencies. Calculo Evolution Fund, however, finished the month in negative territory, primarily due to losses in range-bound energy markets.
All of NHX’s non-trend managers also posted gains. Among short-term traders, Epoque and Lynx Constellation generated positive returns, primarily driven by exposure to precious metals. In the macro space, Estlander & Partners Freedom, Lynx Systematic Macro, and Volt Diversified Alpha all ended the month in positive territory as well, benefiting largely from profits in gold and silver. The multi-manager program RPM Evolving had a particularly strong month, with all underlying managers capturing gold’s sharp rally.
Outlook
Regarding the macroeconomic outlook, if there is a U.S. slowdown coming, it is not yet showing in the data, with the possible exception of the labor market. Nonetheless, the Federal Reserve has begun cutting rates, with at least one further reduction expected in 2025. As a result, the trend environment has expanded accordingly.
