In August 2025, the CTA sub-index of the Nordic Hedge Index edged lower after two positive months, reflecting mixed performance among managers. Strong gains from Volt’s Diversified Alpha Fund, Lynx Systematic Macro Fund, and RPM’s Evolving CTA Fund were offset by losses from the Bitcoin-focused Anna Fund and Estlander & Partners’ Alpha Trend Program.
Last month, Time-Series Momentum (TSMOM), as measured by RPM’s Market Divergence Index (MDI), increased gradually from low levels due to continuing trends in stocks and softs. In equities, US stocks picked up their rally from the previous month amid solid earnings and after steady US inflation data had prompted traders to bet that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates next month. In fixed income, weak US jobs data at the beginning of the month sent bond yields sharply lower. However, for the rest of the month, yields crawled back amid better-than-expected data.
In foreign exchange (FX), the US dollar fell sharply – once again reversing course – amid another US tariff escalation against Brazil, Canada, and India at the beginning of the month and further after US headline inflation had come in below expectations. In commodities, crude oil prices slumped at the start of the month after OPEC’s decision to raise production by another 547,000 barrels before rising again as Ukraine peace process stalled. Elsewhere, meat (especially beef) prices surged to all-time highs as markets kept grappling with consistently strong demand and long-term issues in production. In crypto currencies, Bitcoin hit all‑time highs despite an early‑month selloff on above-mentioned macro turbulence.
Sub-Strategies and Constituents in the NHX CTA Index
Performance was mixed among traditional trend-following managers in the Nordic Hedge Index. Commodity-focused Calculo Evolution Fund and SEB Asset Selection posted gains, driven by profits in softs and equities, respectively. Both Estlander & Partners Alpha Trend and Mandatum Managed Futures Fund ended the month in negative territory mainly due to losses in FX. Lynx Program was flat as gains in commodities were offset by losses in currencies. Crypto specialist manager Anna Fund suffered from the extreme volatility in cryptocurrencies last month.
Non-traditional trend-following managers also produced mixed results. Short-term trading manager Lynx Constellation generated positive returns, while Epoque declined mainly due to FX losses. Macro and multi-strategy managers Estlander & Partners Freedom, Lynx Systematic Macro, and Volt Diversified Alpha finished the month positively, supported by commodity gains. The multi-manager RPM Evolving CTA Fund benefited from the underlying managers’ profits in softs and stocks, which outweighed losses in the currency sector.
Outlook
Looking ahead, while the overhanging tariff threat is already yesterday’s news and currently being ignored by markets, trends in soft commodities remain strong and equities continue their (apparently) unbreakable rally. Everyone is waiting on the Fed to start cutting rates next month, which would possibly broaden the trend environment with additional trends in FX and fixed income.
