Atlas Global Macro, the theme-driven hedge fund co-founded and co-managed by Lars Tvede, is finally showing signs of the potential its founders envisioned at launch in 2021. After several challenging years, the fund is up 23 percent year-to-date through August. Whether this marks a lasting turnaround or simply a short-lived rally remains to be seen, but the recent performance highlights what the strategy can deliver when conditions align.

Return Drivers in 2025

“Performance this year has actually been very broad,” says Tvede, reflecting on four consecutive strong months since May. A key enabler has been the move of the fund’s prime brokerage to UBS, which provided “more flexibility on exotics and commodities, which was really useful.” Precious metals were standout contributors, with direct positions in gold, silver, and platinum all performing well. Commodity-related equity exposures, such as rare earths, uranium, and gold and silver miners, also delivered gains.

“Performance this year has actually been very broad.”

Greek banks, which have been a core position since the fund’s inception, “have really delivered lately,” Tvede notes, though he adds that the team has slightly reduced its exposure. China has also contributed positively. “I personally visited China three times within the last year, meeting with numerous people in finance and tech. We like China a lot, and we’ve recently added onshore A-shares to complement our existing exposure,” he explains.

On the fixed income side, long positions in U.S. Treasuries not only generated returns but also provided a valuable hedge during market volatility. “In currencies, hedging out the dollar was important – it protected the fund in euro terms – while long positions in NOK and SEK, the top-performing G10 currencies this year, added extra juice,” Tvede adds.

Navigating Politics and Global Markets

Since its launch in May 2021, Atlas Global Macro has pursued a thematic global macro strategy with a long-term, directional approach. The fund faced a challenging debut year in 2021, followed by an even tougher 2022 due to its exposure to Russian securities under its “commodity supercycle” thesis. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine rendered these investments nearly worthless, as sanctions and asset freezes came into effect. After relatively muted performance in 2023 and 2024, 2025 is providing the first clear signs of the strategy’s ability to generate attractive returns.

Reflecting on what has changed in 2025 to support the fund’s revival, Tvede notes that “the obvious difference is that after moving into a RAIF structure under UBS last year, we could lean much more into commodities and even trade commodity futures directly – that really broadened our playing field.” He and the Atlas Global Macro team remain convinced that markets are in the early stages of a multi-year commodity bull cycle, positioning the fund to capitalize on structural supply-demand imbalances and broader thematic trends across the sector.

“The obvious difference is that after moving into a RAIF structure under UBS last year, we could lean much more into commodities and even trade commodity futures directly – that really broadened our playing field.”

Politics is another factor shaping markets. “With Trump back in the White House, markets have become very political,” says Tvede. Although many investors obsess over his tweets and public comments, the real market signals, in his view, come from his advisors and cabinet members. “Our key decision point this year was in April during the tariff scare. Many panicked and sold, while we didn’t,” recalls Tvede. “We saw it as a negotiation tactic more than actual policy, and that stance paid off.”

Looking Ahead: AI, Biotech, and the New Commodity Supercycle

Despite the strong performance so far this year, the Atlas Global Macro team remains highly optimistic about the strategy and its positioning going forward, particularly given the emergence of a new commodity supercycle. “We believe this commodity supercycle could run for another 5-10 years,” says Tvede. “Copper is a great example: supply is tight, and M&A activity is already picking up, which usually signals that industry insiders recognize the imbalance and are positioning accordingly.”

More broadly, the team remains constructive on risk assets. “This equity bull market could even evolve into a series of bubbles if easy money and AI-driven optimism continue to fuel it,” notes Tvede. “Over the long term, however, AI should be a net positive – it could lift productivity, be deflationary, and support profits and asset prices,” he adds. 

“We believe this commodity supercycle could run for another 5-10 years.”

One sector where AI could be transformational is biotech. “AI can shorten drug development timelines and cut costs, both a lot, while broadening product categories such as reverse vaccines, cancer vaccines, and anti-aging treatments,” Tvede explains. With valuations at low levels compared to historical averages, the team sees biotech as attractive, particularly for large pharma companies with cash to spend, and has recently initiated positions in this sector.

China remains another conviction. “Even after a strong rally, valuations are cheap, and households are sitting on more than 75 trillion RMB in cash – about 1.8 times the market cap of Chinese equities,” says Tvede. “The last time that happened, A-shares more than doubled in fairly short order,” he recalls. With property subdued and bond yields at record lows, “equities look like the most compelling option,” according to Tvede. “The dividend yield alone is higher than the 10-year government bond, making the TINA case – There Is No Alternative – very clear.”