The Thanksgiving turkey-black swan dilemma

Stockholm (HedgeNordic) – A famous example Nasim Taleb uses in his 2007 book “The Black Swan” to describe what a black swan occurrence is and how unforeseen it is to those getting stricken by it fits is rather well with todays US holiday is the Thanksgiving turkey.

“Consider a turkey that is fed every day,”  Taleb writes. “Every single feeding will firm up the bird’s belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race ‘looking out for its best interests,’ as a politician would say. “On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.”

Here’s Taleb’s famous chart describing the dilemma:

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